Preface:
Pinning is this really valuable tool that everyone ignores. People think it's a joke. In actual fact, pinning can do a lot of damage - not physically, but to the output of squads? yes. Let's explore, using the wondrous magic of mathhammer.How pinning works
Pinning is a very simple rule mechanic. If a weapon with the pinning rule causes an unsaved wound then the unit who took a wound must take a leadership test. If the unit succeeds, nothing happens. if they fail, the squad is forced to go to ground and thus can't perform any meaningful action in the next turn. (they can fire snap shots, which could do something.) Multiple pinning tests can be caused per turn, but simultaneous shooting can only cause one.
How to make pinning work
Pinning is often overlooked because it doesn't come up often, and when it does come up, there's usually a minimal chance it'll have an affect. Against the right targets - units that can survive a large amount of firepower and overwatc but want to be in combat, a successful (well, failed) pinning test can be a game winner, especially for shooting armies like Tau.
Before I begin to explain the more complicated parts of this mathammer, let's make basics clear.
Leadership 1 and 2 fails 97% of the time
Leadership 3 92% of the time
Leadership 4 83% of the time
Leadership 5 72% of the time
Leadership 6 58% of the time
Leadership 7 42% of the time
Leadership 8 28% of the time
Leadership 9 17% of the time
Leadership 10 8% of the time
This means you need a pessimistic 13 pinning tests to ensure LD10 is pinned, Ld 9 still needs 6 - but this number is drastically reduced for even LD8 - where you only need four tests to ensure a fail. after that, 2-3 tests will ensure a fail in any given situation.
Unfortunately, causing six tests on LD9 is usually enough to kill the potentially assaulting squad (terminators)*
or reduce it enough that it isn't a threat anymore (MEQ.) This means pinning finds its effectiveness against units who don't have the resolve of space marines. This is the ever popular Guardsmen, Fire Warriors, Out-of-synapse homargants and small squads of orks.
I think the most important part of this tactic is that you have to realise that it won't always work, but sometimes it will debilitate your opponent. Most importantly, always force your opponent to take a pinning check if he has one to take. Pinning can never work if you pretend it simply doesn't exist.
* Before someone misinterprets this, I'm aware you can't pin on overwatch.
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